지금 세계경제 위기의 뿌리를 다시 생각하게 하는 내용들…
We wish to highlight to our equity clients that Lehman has now moved to the view that we are very likely to have negative growth for Q1 and Q2 in 2008 and possible negative growth into Q4. We are also taking the view that the recession of 2008 could be worse than 1990 and 2001. We are on the fence about whether this will be worse than the recessions of 1980 or 1974, but we need to think about this possibility. So, this is a big change for Lehman Brothers, not one which we took lightly.
Central banks are now putting up an admirable fight against 3 things -
1) There is a rapid and widening deterioration of credit quality through the range of credit products – high grade and junk alike.
2) There is a rapid and widening capital shortage within the banking system. The numbers of which now stand at a loss to capital of $257 billion and counting.
3) There is a liquidity problem in the following four ways:
a) Banks whose capital is jeopardized are shrinking assets and de-leveraging.
b) Consumers whose asset values are shrinking (i.e. homes) are de-leveraging
c) Hedge funds and other financial intermediaries are either voluntarily or mandatorily shrinking. We now hear of problems written about during the weekend at Carlyle’s fund (CCC) and another large mortgage lender (Thornburgh). In the case of Carlyle, “additional margin calls and more collateral requirements could quickly deplete capital,” the company said on Thursday.
d) Corporates are watching in disbelief as liquidity dries up and are having difficulties getting liquidity.
Onshore dollars in Asia are suddenly drying up and beginning to cause problems. The drying up of liquidity is causing onshore rates to blow out to 600-700 above Libor.
We highlight the newest count of losses in the financial system below. This seems to go up by about $30 billion a week. It now accounts for more than 15% of global tangible bank capital. The capital shortage is, we believe, the core problem in the world. We believe it is likely to get much worse before it gets better. The central banks are now considering a way to introduce liquidity and shore up the damaged confidence as losses accumulate.
They plan to spend $200 billion (equivalent to most of the losses so far) to lend, mostly to investment banks, in 30 day instruments. The Fed will accept mortgage backed securities and, in exchange will create cash by selling government securities. So, it is basically selling AAA paper and buying BBB paper. This does not sound like a very good idea to us, but it seems necessary to avoid a freeze-up of the system. Further freezing up could spread the cascade of problems which has sequentially spread to ABCP, SIVS, conduits, auction rate securities, municipal bonds and is now causing an equity crisis. The Fed wants to keep the SMEs intact, since it recently noticed added stress on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.